A Flush Draw is an ‘incomplete’ hand that consists of four cards of the same suit and would become – with more cards still to come – a flush were a fifth card of that same suit to appear. A common flush draw scenario sees a player dealt, for example, two hearts, and the Flop brings two more, thus leaving the player needing another heart by the River to fill the flush.

Flush draw probability

With thirteen cards to each suit, a flush draw has nine outs which, in the above example, come in the form of the remaining hearts in the deck. Note that in the mathematical/probability context, we don’t need to think about whether the ‘out’ cards are among other players’ hands or the undealt cards. With this in mind, the probability of completing the flush by the River is around 35%. However, with just one card still to come this drops down to less than 20%…

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· Published 22.02.2018 · last updated 27.01.2022

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