Poker isn’t merely a game of chance; it’s anchored in math. Smart players grasp that, beyond intuition and opponent reads, recognizing odds is key for success. Shockingly, few players truly understand hand probabilities. Data from over 2.5 million hands reveals typical patterns. You don’t need mastery over every probability, but knowing certain scenarios can boost your game.

Consider the odds of getting pocket aces before the flop, hitting a set on the flop, or understanding various flop combinations. Also, gauge how often you’d flop a gutshot straight draw to inform decisions about continuing or folding. These probabilities dictate strategy and bets.

Digging deeper:

1. Pocket Aces Pre-flop: A dream for many, but know its rarity. This informs how bold or cautious you should play this hand.
2. Hitting a Set: With a pocket pair, how often will a third card on the flop make a set? This informs decisions about seeing the flop or chasing after.
3. Different Flop Combinations: Understanding the vast flop combinations aids strategy adaptation.
4. Flopping a Gutshot: A tempting draw, yet grasp its frequency and associated risks.

To excel at poker, rule knowledge isn’t enough. Immersion, understanding the math, and ongoing learning set apart novices from experts. As this article progresses, we’ll dissect these elements, offering insights and tactics for your poker journey.

Pokerhand Amount Probabilities %
Royal Flush 4 0.00%
Straight Flush 36 0.00%
Full House 3744 0.14%
Flush 5108 0.20%
Straight 10200 0.39%
Three of a kind 54912 2.11%
Two Pair 123552 4.75%
Pair 1098240 42.25%
High Card 1302540 50.13%
The Probabilities, that … Probabilities in % The Chances are
you hold a pair before the flop 5.88 16 zu 1
you hold two cards with the same colour 23.53 3,25 zu 1
you hold two aces or kings before the flop 0.9 110 zu 1
you hold AK before the flop 1.21 81,90 zu 1
you hold minimum one Ace before the flop 14.93 5,70 zu 1
that you complete your Flush Draw until the River 34.97 1,86 zu 1
that you complete your Open Ended Straight Flush Draw after the Flop until the River 8.42 10,90 zu 1
that you complete with a Straight Flush Draw after the Flop minimum a Straight 54.12 0,85 zu 1
that you build with a Two Pair after the Flop minimum a Full House 16.74 4,97 zu 1
that you build with three of a kind on the Flop minimum a Full House at the end 33.4 1,99 zu 1
man mit einem gebildeten Paar nach dem Flop noch mindestens eine weitere dieser Karten bekommt 8.42 10,90 zu 1
that you hit a set on the flop 11.76 7,51 zu 1
that you hit a pair on the flop 32.43 2,08 zu 1
you hit a flop with at least 2 matching colors with 2 start cards of the same color 11.79 7,48 zu 1
that you hit a flush with two cards of the same colour on the flop 0.84 118 zu 1
that you hit quads with a pocket pair on the flop 0.24 407 zu 1
that you hit with 65 offsuit a Straight on the Flop 1.31 75,6 zu 1
that you hit with 75 offsuit a Straight on the Flop 0.98 101 zu 1
that you hit with 98 suited a Straight Flush on the Flop 0.02 4.899 zu 1
Probabilities Starting Hands Preflop if you are All-In Probabilities
AA vs AK 92%
AA vs QJ 85%
AA vs KK 82%
AA vs 22 82%
AA vs 76s 77%
AK vs 22 47%
AK vs AJ 72%
AK vs AJ 58%
AK vs 54s 45%
AJ vs KQ 60%
A8 vs T9 57%
A8 vs 54 62%
A8 vs 54s 58%
KK vs K2 94%
Author: YPD
last updated 19.09.2023